The European emissions trading market recorded a significant correction in its quotations in February. The price in the spot market dropped on February 16 to 67.75 euros per ton of CO2 equivalent (€/tCO2eq), its lowest level since early May of the previous year. The figure represents a 25% drop from the peak of 90.02 €/tCO2eq reached on January 14.
The downward trend has also been reflected in the futures reference index, the ICE EUA Futures Dec '26, which is trading around 72 €/tCO2eq after declining approximately 10 euros between February 10 and 16.
Market sources link this evolution to the growing political and business resistance to the European emissions trading system (EU ETS). Various sectors have proposed to review the mechanism, delay certain obligations, or even temporarily suspend its application, in a context of concern about its impact on industrial competitiveness and in certain transport sectors.
In the maritime sector, the EU ETS will face the culmination of its gradual implementation in 2026. Since its incorporation in 2024, the sector has been gradually taking on the obligation to surrender emission allowances. Starting this year, vessels will have to cover 100% of their verified emissions within the system's scope, after a transitional period in which a lower percentage was required.
The measure has generated rejection among various European shipowner associations. Interferry has requested that the obligation scheduled for 2025 be frozen at 70%, while Assarmatori—one of the two Italian shipowner associations—with the support of organizations from Greece and Malta, has called for the suspension of the regulation and the introduction of corrective measures to protect the segments they consider most exposed to external competition or traffic diversions.
In Spain, the Association of Spanish Shipowners (ANAVE) has warned that the EU ETS is having direct effects on short-distance maritime transport, particularly in ro-ro traffic that competes directly with road transport. According to data from the Short Distance Maritime Transport Observatory, demand in maritime corridors with Italy experienced declines in 2024 and 2025, while road transport recorded growth at double-digit rates during the same period.
In parallel, downward adjustments have occurred in the offered capacity in certain maritime services where modal substitution is viable. This combination of lower demand and reduced supply indicates a scenario of operational rebalancing conditioned by additional costs associated with carbon.
In the Atlantic façade, changes in trade flows are also being detected. Some operators report greater dynamism in connections with the United Kingdom, a country that is outside the perimeter of the maritime EU ETS, compared to declines in other European ports. Additionally, capacity cuts have been observed on certain routes.
Another element pointed out by the sector is the potential emergence of distortions in cabotage traffic derived from the method of computing emissions at intermediate scales. According to shipping companies, this configuration could incentivize road transport to avoid the additional cost of the EU ETS and the FuelEU Maritime regulation, having the consequent effect on land congestion and the net emissions balance.
Criticism of the system is not limited to maritime transport. During the recent European industry summit held in Antwerp, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz raised the possibility of "reviewing or at least postponing" the ETS if it does not meet its objective of reducing emissions without harming industrial competitiveness. In the same vein, Repsol's CEO, Josu Jon Imaz, defined the system as "a tax" that, in his opinion, accelerates the relocation of European industry.
Against these positions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the effectiveness of the emissions trading system during the meeting in Antwerp. As she recalled, since its introduction in 2005, emissions in the covered sectors have been reduced by 39%, while the economy of those sectors has grown by 71%. Furthermore, the system has generated over 260 billion euros in accumulated revenue since its inception.
The debate on the future of the EU ETS occurs at a time when the European Union maintains its climate roadmap and the timeline for extending the system to new sectors, including maritime transport. The recent evolution of the prices of emission allowances adds a new element of analysis to a mechanism that combines environmental objectives with economic and operational implications for multiple productive activities.