The first results from the Observatory created by Port Authorities to measure the impact of the EU-ETS (European Union Emission Trade System) on the maritime sector confirm a reduction in the connectivity of container traffic in long-distance services conducted in ports of the European Union compared to neighboring countries not subject to European environmental regulations. The loss is measured in terms of the TEU-mile parameter and represents a decline in activity quota that increases the risk of a gradual erosion of the connectivity of European ports in favor of those located in non-community countries.
The trade union organization Coordinadora has attended the presentation of the conclusions of the report, prepared by Port Authorities, in Brussels. José María Borrego and Santiago López from the Port of Algeciras expressed the existing concern about how the EU-ETS is affecting the social dimension and employment of port workers.
The president of Port Authorities, Gustavo Santana, stated during the presentation of these results before the European Sea Ports Organisation (ESPO) in Brussels that 'the support for the decarbonization process by Port Authorities is completely firm. However, we believe that certain aspects regarding the application of the ETS to the maritime sector should be followed up and, if necessary, revised, in order to improve the system and contribute to the final objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while preserving the competitiveness and control of our supply chain.'
For her part, Polona Gregorin, head of the Mobility Unit at DG CLIMA of the European Commission, thanked the work of the Observatory and indicated that 'the Commission will continue to monitor the situation, not forgetting that decarbonization is key to the competitiveness of the maritime sector.'
The detailed data reveals a drop in the activity quota of the main European ports —measured in TEUs-mile: the TEU capacity of the ships arriving multiplied by the distance traveled— from 67% in 2023 to 56% in 2025, with the largest decreases recorded in Northern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.
At the end of last year, it was already anticipated that the first results of this Observatory showed an increase in activity in non-EU ports but close to Europe, such as those located in the United Kingdom, in Northern Europe, and in Egypt and Turkey, in the Mediterranean. Data indicates that, in 2023, ports in the United Kingdom represented 17.5% of the total TEUs-mile of the whole of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. By July 2025, that percentage had nearly doubled to 32.1%. This 15-point difference over two years corresponds almost exactly to the losses recorded by the Netherlands and Germany together.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, ports in Egypt have recorded the greatest growth in terms of TEUs-mile quota, rising from 35% in 2022 to 52% in 2025, while Greece has experienced a sharp decline from 45% to 12% in the same period.
Regarding maritime routes, the Observatory detects a considerable increase in the weight of British ports and those in the Eastern Mediterranean in long-distance services. The situation in the Suez Canal, combined with the reorganization of alliances among shipping companies, led to a general adjustment of routes that coincided almost simultaneously with the entry into force of the maritime ETS, causing a profound market disruption. However, while the closure of the canal is very relevant, this factor alone would not explain the growth of transoceanic connectivity currently observed in countries such as the United Kingdom or Egypt. It cannot also be attributed to usual factors like a significant increase in economic activity, a reduction in operating costs, or congestion issues in neighboring European ports.
This increase in traffic, always taking into account the TEUs-mile measure, is accompanied by an increase in planned investments that foresee a 21% increase in port capacity in ports of the United Kingdom. In the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in Israel, Turkey, and Egypt, the planned investments will allow for a 43% increase in capacity, measured in millions of TEUs handled annually. Considering that port expansions must be based on long-term projections, it is inferred that investments in these countries are not driven by cyclical reasons but rather by structural changes in maritime traffic.
As next steps, in addition to continuing to monitor activity in the container segment, the Observatory also has within its scope the follow-up of ro-ro traffic. In this sector, some data point to a possible return to the road of trucks that have been operating on ships, which, if confirmed, would mean an increase in emissions linked to the transportation chain, as well as a rise in traffic and congestion levels on European roads.
The Observatory, promoted by Port Authorities and developed by the consortium formed by Shipping Business Consultant (SBC), the Transport Innovation Center (CENIT), and Nextport, has the mission of detecting possible carbon leaks and traffic alterations in ports subject to the EU-ETS, which obliges shipping companies that dock in European ports to pay for their emissions into the atmosphere based on the capacity of the ship and the route traveled.
The purpose of the Observatory is to alert about evasive practices that have already occurred or may occur, so that it is possible to anticipate, but also to support decision-making regarding the review of the EU-ETS Directive planned in the regulation for this year, including the definition of preventive or corrective measures.
In the context of the fight against climate change, in December 2022 it was agreed to extend the European Union Emission Trade System to maritime transport. As a result, shipping companies must acquire rights for emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases that are reported following the protocol defined by EU Regulation 2015/757.
Throughout the processing of this legislative initiative and since its entry into force on January 1, 2024, Spain, through the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, which Port Authorities depend on, has led the analysis and warnings in the EU about the potential negative effects of this regulation concerning the diversion of routes and the relocation of maritime traffic centers towards ports in third countries where this environmental regulation does not apply.
Among the risks to port competitiveness are the loss of strategic traffic for Europe, logistical relocation, decreased maritime connectivity —which entails a loss of logistical sovereignty— and increased operating costs, not to mention that the sought effect of reducing carbon emissions will not be achieved if shipping companies opt to operate in non-European but neighboring ports.