The United States and Iran have announced a two-week ceasefire that includes the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, an agreement that has been met with relief by international markets, although with notable caution from major shipping companies. The announcement came just hours before the ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald Trump was set to expire, who had threatened military escalation if Iran refused to reopen the maritime passage.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the main transit point for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf to international markets. Its effective closure since the bombings launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28 had reduced ship traffic by over 90% compared to normal levels, with around 800 vessels accumulated waiting to transit the area, according to data from Bloomberg. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has confirmed 21 attacks against commercial vessels since the conflict began, with 10 crew members deceased and several injured. Approximately 20,000 civilian mariners remain aboard vessels operating in the Persian Gulf.
According to the statement from the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the agreement has been made possible thanks to the mediation of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the acceptance by Washington of elements of the ten-point proposal presented by Tehran as the basis for negotiations. The Iranian plan includes the establishment of a controlled passage system managed by coordination with Iranian armed forces, which, according to various analyses, would grant Iran a position of significant economic and geopolitical relevance. According to various sources, the plan would allow Iran and Oman to charge transit fees to vessels crossing the strait.
Iranian demands also include the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East, the release of its frozen assets, and the cessation of attacks against Iran and its allies, as well as the formalization of the agreement through a binding resolution from the UN Security Council.
Diplomatic talks between both countries are scheduled for April 10 in Pakistan, in what would be the first formal contact since the escalation of the conflict.
Financial markets have reacted with significant increases, with a rise of 4% in major European stock exchanges and a 14% drop in oil prices, which have settled around $93 per barrel. However, vessel tracking data did not show a noticeable increase in traffic through the strait in the early hours, reflecting the wait-and-see attitude adopted by maritime operators.
Maersk has welcomed the announcement of the ceasefire, but noted that the situation in the area still does not provide complete maritime security and that it will take a cautious approach without making immediate changes to its services and routes. Hapag-Lloyd has announced that it will refrain for the moment from resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz due to uncertainty and lack of reliable security guarantees. Analyst Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime has warned that vessels are likely to be seen departing the Persian Gulf, but that entering the area requires greater caution due to the possibility that the ceasefire may not be upheld.
The latest recorded incident, which took place on April 7, affected the container ship Qingdao Star, with a capacity of 3,900 TEUs and chartered by Maersk, which was hit by a projectile in the Persian Gulf causing damage only to the hull.
Spain's Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, has welcomed the truce but noted that humanity has been on the brink of catastrophe. Regarding any potential Spanish participation in a surveillance operation in the strait, Albares stated that it would only be possible under the framework of the United Nations and once hostilities cease. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has called for fuel prices to decrease as rapidly as they rose.
The situation in the Red Sea, affected for months by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, will not see an immediate change based on current outlooks. Israel has announced that its operations in Lebanon will continue regardless of the truce, which does not bode well for a quick normalization of transit through the Suez Canal.