The container shipping industry has begun to show a sign of greater confidence in the Persian Gulf after Cosco Shipping Lines announced the immediate resumption of new reservations for general cargo containers between the Far East and the Middle East. The decision marks a shift from the suspension applied on March 4, when the military escalation in the area and the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz had rendered that operation outside of viable commercial conditions.
Cosco's reopening extends to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The move is interpreted in the sector as a first sign of operational relief for a route that remains subject to strong uncertainties and whose normalization is still far from being assured. Reuters and other specialized media place this decision in the context of increased diplomatic activity by Beijing regarding Tehran, with the aim of restoring stability in a key area for Chinese energy and logistical flows.
The announcement by the Chinese shipping company also coincides with new messages from Tehran about the transit of third countries. The Iranian ambassador in Seoul, Saeed Koozechi, stated this March 26 that South Korean vessels will be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz, although only with prior coordination with the Iranian military and governmental authorities. According to his words, there are no problems with those vessels, but the passage requires prior consultations with Tehran.
Despite this slight opening, the operational situation is far from having normalized. BIMCO estimates that around 130 container ships, equivalent to about 1.5% of the world's fleet capacity, remain detained in the Gulf. The organization estimates that nearly 3% of global container volumes can no longer move normally, with a direct effect on around 5% of global ship demand. As part of those services, it also serves ports in India and Pakistan, with the cumulative impact reaching nearly 10% of the global fleet.
BIMCO's chief maritime transport analyst, Niels Rasmussen, presents two scenarios for the coming years: one with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for an extended period and another with a near resumption of transits. In both cases, the organization anticipates a moderate weakening of the global balance between supply and demand in 2026 and 2027. Rasmussen adds that if transits do not recover, liner shipping companies will have to face significant additional costs due to rising fuel prices, while cargo volumes will continue to decline.
The geographical particularity of the Gulf adds complexity to the crisis. Turloch Mooney, global head of port intelligence and analytics at S&P Global, has warned that, unlike what happened in the Red Sea, there is no real maritime alternative for the major hubs of the Gulf. In his analysis, short-term feeder replacements do not resolve the problem but rather shift the bottlenecks to other points in the network. This reading points to an operational fragmentation of services and increasingly deteriorated reliability of calls.
In parallel, the evolution of freight rates begins to reflect a correction. Linerlytica indicates that the initial upward pressure generated by the crisis in the Middle East has eased because part of the surplus tonnage, displaced from its regular services to the Gulf, has been repositioned on other routes. According to this consultancy, capacity utilization in the main trades remains below the level necessary to sustain the tariff increases announced in mid-March, which has forced the withdrawal or moderation of those increases.
This evolution does not mean that operations have regained stability. Maersk warned this week of the urgency to maintain food supply to the Middle East, in a region where several Gulf Cooperation Council countries are heavily dependent on imports. The company has maintained reservation restrictions towards numerous ports in the Gulf and has applied extraordinary fuel surcharges to absorb part of the cost increases resulting from the crisis.
Hapag-Lloyd has also adapted its response to the situation. The German shipping company maintains a continuous notification system regarding operational developments in the Upper Gulf and had announced in March several suspensions and temporary measures to manage the flow of containers in the area. In recent days, it has also provided its customers with cargo in the region with real-time tracking tools for dry and refrigerated containers, with the aim of improving visibility of shipments in a very unstable environment.
The partial reactivation of Cosco thus introduces an element of greater confidence into the market, but does not clear structural doubts about the route. The reopening is limited to ordinary cargo and does not equate to a complete normalization of services or transit through Hormuz. The sector remains attentive to the diplomatic evolution and security conditions imposed by Iran, as shipowners, shippers, and operators adjust their networks to a scenario in which the Gulf continues to operate under restrictions, higher costs, and still very fragile operational reliability.