The military conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase of escalation following the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran, prompting major container shipping lines to redesign their global service networks in light of the growing security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
According to Reuters, vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz received VHF transmissions from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warning that "no ship is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz." In practice, the world's most critical oil transit point is considered closed to commercial traffic.
The naval mission of the European Union EUNAVFOR ASPIDES stated on February 28 that, following U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, sources indicated that the Houthi movement from Yemen had threatened to launch new attacks against vessels linked to Israel and the United States, as well as against commercial maritime transport in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The mission urged the shipping industry to remain vigilant, warning that attacks against merchant vessels cannot be ruled out, and added that its assets deployed in the operational area remain on high alert, ready to protect lives at sea and contribute to the freedom of navigation.
The major shipping lines in the sector — Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, and CMA CGM — have announced operational adjustments, citing growing concerns for the safety of their crews, vessels, and cargoes in the region.
Hapag-Lloyd has decided to suspend future transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the moment. The measure directly affects its IMX service, which will be diverted via the route around the Cape of Good Hope. The German shipping line indicated that, while it remains committed to minimizing the impact on the supply chains of its customers, the return to the route through Suez will depend on an improvement in security conditions. Hapag-Lloyd also confirmed the introduction of a war risk surcharge (WRS) for cargo originating and destined for the Gulf of Superior, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Gulf, due to the dynamic situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the necessary operational adjustments causing disruptions throughout the network.
CMA CGM announced in a notice on February 28 that all vessels within the Gulf and bound for the Gulf have received immediate instructions to head to refuge areas. Transit through the Suez Canal has been suspended until further notice, and vessels will be redirected around the Cape of Good Hope. The French company has introduced an emergency conflict surcharge of $2,000 for a 20-foot container, $3,000 for a 40-foot container, and $4,000 for a refrigerated container, applicable not only to cargo originating and destined for the Gulf but also to all ports in the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea.
MSC reported on Sunday that it has ordered all vessels currently operating in the Gulf region, as well as those heading to the area, to head to safe refuge areas until further notice. Additionally, it has suspended all global cargo bookings to the Middle East until further notice. The company explained that it is closely monitoring the evolution of the situation and working with the relevant authorities to ensure the security of its operations, and that bookings to the Middle East will resume as soon as security conditions improve.
Maersk, for its part, has also suspended future transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, affecting all ME11 services (Middle East-India to Mediterranean) and MECL (Middle East-India to the U.S. East Coast), which will be redirected via the Cape of Good Hope. The Danish company has suspended all ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, warning that services calling at ports in the Arabian Gulf may face delays, diversions, and itinerary adjustments. Maersk noted that once the situation stabilizes, it will prioritize the route through Suez for ME11 and MECL services, as it is the fastest, most sustainable, and efficient route. Acceptance of cargo for the Middle East remains open. Regarding its land operations, the shipping line announced the closure of its storage facilities in the United Arab Emirates on Monday, March 2, as a precaution and following government shelter guidelines, as well as the closure of its offices in the UAE, Oman, and Qatar until further notice, except for essential personnel.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, noted that the repercussions of the joint U.S. and Israeli military operation against Iran and the subsequent reprisals will lead to greater instrumentalization of trade and put an end to hopes for a large-scale return of container transport to the Red Sea in 2026. Sand recalled that shipping lines had begun to return selected east-west services to transits through the Suez Canal in recent months, having navigated around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023 due to the attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia. If the Houthis resume attacks, as now seems likely, shipping lines will reverse the decision to return to the Red Sea and any phased return plan in 2026 will be shelved until the security situation clarifies.
Shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope currently absorb about 2.5 million TEUs of global container shipping capacity, effectively increasing overall fleet demand. According to Xeneta, average spot rates from China to the U.S. East Coast and the U.S. West Coast have fallen by 32% and 35%, respectively, since the beginning of 2026, while rates to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean have decreased by 23% and 33%. However, with a broad return to the Red Sea in 2026 now unlikely, rates are expected to continue moderating rather than collapsing in the second half of the year, as fewer services than anticipated will resume transits through the Suez Canal. Compared to pre-crisis levels of December 1, 2023, spot rates from China to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean — the routes most affected by the diversions — remain 48% and 79% above, respectively.
Regarding the impact in the Middle East, Sand indicated that container services in the Persian Gulf have largely remained on the sidelines of the recent military deployment in the region; however, the escalation towards direct military attacks has led shipping lines to avoid the area. Average spot rates from China to the UAE have risen by 5% since February 15, reaching $1,572 per FEU (40-foot equivalent container), pressured upward by shippers' concerns over the security situation and uncertainty regarding the entry and exit of goods from ports in the Persian Gulf. Sand pointed out that there is no viable alternative to maritime transport for bringing in or taking out containers from ports like Jebel Ali if the Persian Gulf is out of service, so shipping lines will skip these stops in east-west services and unload the cargo at the least unfavorable alternative port for subsequent road transport. This will cause serious disruption and regional port congestion, although it will not have a significant global impact compared to the influence of the conflict in the Red Sea.